This internal report was created at BIRA-IASB in 1984. On the basis of four different emission scenarios and a one-dimensional chemical radiative model of the Earth atmosphere, it simulates the expected changes in temperature and ozone abundance in the stratosphere (20-60km altitude) for a past period (1940-1983) and a future period (1984-2040).
This report has historical value as it shows that the Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy was already studying at that time the future impact of greenhouse gases on the temperature and composition of the atmosphere.
Excerpt from the introduction:
"A series of time-dependent, multiple perturbation calculations have been carried out using a 1-D chemical radiative model to describe the response of the ozone layer to the injection in the atmosphere of gases such as the chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11 and CFC-12), CH3CCl3, CCl4, CO2, CH4 and N2O.
The effect of nitric oxide released by the engines of aircraft is also considered in some model cases.
The purpose of this preliminary note is to briefly summarize the results obtained by this model. A number of graphs with the main model output is given hereafter. Full details of the calculations will be published in scientific journals."
